Blue chips on Bursa Malaysia suffered steep falls last week as concerns over escalating debt crisis in Europe triggered by a potential Greece exit from the eurozone sparked a global sell-off in equities with investors moving to safe havens.
The political deadlock in Greece, which forced the country to call another election by mid-June, and downgrades of Italian and Spanish banks by rating agencies heightened the risk of contagion from Europe’s debt crisis.
Week-on-week, the blue-chip benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) slumped 51.86 points, or 3.3 per cent, to 1,532.46, with CIMB(-48 sen), Sime Darby (-56 sen), Maybank (-29 sen) and IOI Corp (-28 sen) contributing to half of the index’s loss. Average daily traded volume and value slowed to 1.15 billion shares worth RM1.65 billion from 1.21 billion shares worth RM1.29 billion in the previous week, as investors stayed on the sidelines amid the adverse sentiment abroad.
Developments in Greece and reactions from the other major European economies will continue to hog the limelight over the next few weeks until the fate of Greece in the eurozone is determined when the outcome of June 17 re-election is known. It is near certain that the anti-austerity camp would strengthen its grip in Parliament this time around with Greeks knowing full well that the recent election outcome has succeeded in melting demands for tight spending and contractionary fiscal policy. However, with Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), stressing that ECB won’t compromise on key principles to keep Greece in the euro area and deciding to suspend lending to some undercapitalised Greek banks, the writing is already on the wall.
Conditions would worsen if Greece exits the eurozone as a return to the drachma will affect confidence in the euro area and the currency itself, affecting spending and investment. As it is, bond yields in Spain have already surged after Moody’s downgrade of its 16 banks. The situation is similar in other troubled countries like Italy and Ireland. A capital flight could push even Germany to reconsider eurobonds to prevent a banking meltdown again.
As for Greece, there is no doubt that its national currency would depreciate sharply and push up its debt obligations, but it does not make sense to remain in the flawed economic union, where the weaker members are already paying the price for their excessive spending without corresponding or higher income. A breakup would result in a severe short-term shock but at least the Greek government can have control over its own debts by giving creditors a choice to convert euro debts into drachma, or default. With ability to print money recapitalising its banks would not be difficult and the sharp decline in its currency would restore its competitiveness in the long run and help achieve a stable equilibrium for its currency.
It would not be a surprise if other troubled economies like Spain, Italy and Ireland decide to take the same path with growing internal pressure from their public. The Irish will head to the polls on May 31 to decide whether to accept the European Union’s austerity measures. The recent political retaliation seen in France and Greece could be a good indication of what to expect. Iran would add to the woes when the sanctions imposed by the international community, led by the US, come into effect on July 1.
With so much uncertainty, it is difficult to be upbeat about relatively risky investments like equities. There is no doubt the domestic equity market will be subjected to volatility during this period. As the global uncertainty has the tendency to push up the US dollar, beneficiaries of such an outcome in the gloves, technology, media and oil and gas sectors may attract some buying interest.
As for domestic economic data, the Consumer Price Index for April and first quarter gross domestic growth numbers will be out on Wednesday. Consensus expectations are for growth of 2.1 per cent and 4.6 per cent year-on-year respectively.
Technical outlook
In FBM KLCI futures, spot contract May traded on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives slid 49 points, or 3.1 per cent, to close the week at 1,526.5, a mild improvement to a six-point discount to the cash index, compared to the 8.82-point discount the previous week.
The local stock market slumped last Monday in line with regional falls as increasing concern that Greece will exit the eurozone overshadowed optimism from China’s move to cut reserve requirements for banks will help boost the economy. The FBM KLCI tumbled 9.24 points to end near session lows at 1,575.08, as losers swarmed gainers 694 to 158 on slow turnover of 977.9 million shares worth RM1.12 billion.
Blue chips slumped the next day, led by CIMB and IOI Corp, dragged down by the contined deadlock in Greece and after Moody’s downgraded Italian banks. The FBM KLCI sank 14.01 points to settle at 1,561.07, as losers trounced gainers 658 to 176 on higher turnover of 1.12 billion shares worth RM1.64 billion.
Core blue chips suffered heavy losses on Wednesday, led by Tenaga Nasional and Sime Darby, as regional markets slumped after Greece’s plan for new elections raised concern the country will withdraw from the eurozone and deepen the region’s debt crisis. The FBM KLCI tumbled 25.03 points, or 1.6 per cent, to end near session lows at 1,536.04, as losers bashed gainers 822 to 97 on higher volume of 1.33 billion shares worth RM2.06 billion.
Stocks staged a rebound from the recent severe sell-off the following day on optimism over the standby stimulus from the US Federal Reserve which offset fears that the European debt crisis would worsen. The FBM KLCI recouped 8.17 points to close at 1,544.21, off a high of 1,552.25, as gainers led losers 472 to 279 on trade totalling 1.28 billion shares worth RM1.93 billion.
The market turned lower again on Friday, depressed by overnight losses on Wall Street after weaker economic data, downgrade of Spanish banks and the Greek saga sparked contagion fears in the eurozone. The index slid 11.75 points to settle at 1,532.46, off a low of 1,526.6, as losers bashed gainers 702 to 130 on slower trade of 1.06 billion shares worth RM1.5 billion.
The trading range for the benchmark index expanded sharply to 58.03 points last week, compared with the 18.08-point range in the previous week, caused by the heavy falls in core index heavyweights.
The daily slow stochastic indicator for the FBM KLCI has slid into the oversold zone, but the weekly indicator retraced further towards bearish territory. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hooked down for a mildly oversold reading at 29.07, while the 14-week RSI fell further for a bearish reading of 46.08.
Meantime, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is signalling a more bearish trend ahead, reinforced by the increased bearish momentum on the weekly MACD after flashing a sell signal the previous week. The +DI and -DI lines on the 14-day Directional Movement Index (DMI) trend indicator expanded sharply from each other on a rising AXD line, suggesting a strengthening of the downtrend.
Conclusion
Despite the mildly oversold condition sparked by last week’s sell-off, the FBM KLCI has more downside room this week as most technical momentum and trend indicators stayed bearish and suggest further weakness ahead. Market sentiment should remain depressed given investors’ increased risk aversion due to higher probability of a contagion from the European debt crisis, sparked by opposition to austerity measures in Greece that would derail the country’s bailout package.
Hence, expect further downside risk for the index towards stronger supports at 1,510, the 200-day moving average, and 1,495, the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci Retracement of the 1,310 trough of September 26 2011 to the record peak of 1,609 set on April 3, before it moves into base-building mode. Immediate resistance is retained at 1,559, the 100-day moving average, with the 10-, 50- and 30-day moving averages at 1,568, 1,582 and 1,582 respectively acting as the next overhead resistance cluster.
AMMB, CIMB, Gamuda, Genting Bhd, Maybank, Sime Darby and Tenaga could suffer further falls to lower and stronger retracement supports before rebuilding a more solid base to anchor recovery going forward.
The subject expressed above is based purely on technical analyses and opinions of the writer. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell.